The euro continues its rise amid the decision of the ECB to add € 600 billion to its emergency assistance program. The package now totals to an astonishing € 1.35 trillion.
At its meeting yesterday, the ECB increased the emergency program for the purchase of PEPP assets by € 600 billion, higher than what economists expected. Since the program was previously worth € 750 billion, the fund now increased to € 1.35 trillion, and is set to pay back debts (bonds) that will be issued by the eurozone governments to combat the pandemic and its consequences. The program will help smooth out the spread difference in the EU, and prevent the further increase of government bond yields in the countries where the economic situation is not the best.
However, although the news surrounding the euro is positive, a continued rise in the euro in the short term should not be expected, as the euphoria from the new program may come to naught, and a correction in the EUR / USD pair may occur, especially after the protests in the US subsides.
With regards to macroeconomic reports, the data on US unemployment, which was published yesterday, although a bit positive, was not able to pull the US dollar back up. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of applications for unemployment benefits over the week of May 17-23 was 649,000. Applications are now gradually decreasing after a sharp jump at the end of March this year when quarantine measures were introduced in the United States.
Today, another report on the US labor market will be published, which is the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. It is expected that in May, job losses are only 7.5 million, much lower than the 20 million drop in April this year. The unemployment rate itself is also important, which, according to economists, will approach 20% and make up 19.4% in May.
Meanwhile, the data on US trade deficit was ignored, as everyone already expected the sharp decline in imports and exports due to the quarantine restrictions. Nevertheless, according to the US Department of Commerce, the deficit in goods and services increased by 16.7% in April, amounting to $ 49.41 billion. Economists expected the deficit to be $ 50 billion. Imports dropped by 13.7% in April, and exports fell by 20.5%.
If the US avoids a second wave of the pandemic, global trade will recover, as consumer demand is sure to increase.
Meanwhile, a report on productivity in the US in the 1st quarter of this year was also published, which revealed a decrease, due to the coronavirus pandemic. According to the US Department of Labor, productivity outside agriculture in the 1st quarter of 2020 fell by 0.9% per annum compared with the previous quarter.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, a breakout from 1.1360 may raise the risky assets up, leading to a test of the levels 1.1430 and 1.1490. However, if the quotes fail to consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1360, the results of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report will return demand for the US dollar, which will knock down buyer’s stops and lead to an update of the lows 1.1275 and 1.1200