Oil caught a wave: prices are skyrocketing

Exchange Rates 03.06.2020 analysis

Crude oil is rapidly moving up. The cost of futures does not stop its growth, which has already allowed the Brent brand to step over the strategically and psychologically important mark of $40 per barrel. Analysts believe that the reason for such success, first of all, is possible success in agreements on extending the reduction of oil production between the OPEC member countries.

Today it has become clear that most countries are ready to further reduce production on their territory for another two months. Even Russia, which had previously expressed sufficient skepticism about this, began openly calling for a continuation of the reduction course, since it had already worked well in order to adjust supply and demand, which allowed the oil market to begin its recovery. Some other OPEC members are also set to reduce production, which is what their colleagues are calling for.

In addition, investor interest is also fueled by the fact that the remote meeting of OPEC ministers was decided to be postponed from June 10 to an earlier date. Thus, negotiations will be held at the end of this week, that is, June 4-5, and the further policy of oil-producing countries will be clear very soon. Market participants, in anticipation of a decline in production and with hope for a better outcome of the meeting, began active work on trading floors, which did not take long and was reflected in the price of oil.

Experts believe that the market is adjusting to a new wave, which indicates a transition from excess supply to deficit, which will stimulate the growth of futures contracts and support the raw materials market as a whole.

Demand for raw materials also continues to grow as the economies of the world open up and emerge from stagnation after the coronavirus pandemic. The main focus here is that the prospects for growth in demand from China, which is one of the world’s largest consumers of crude oil, are very good. The country’s economy is rapidly recovering, therefore, demand is also gaining momentum.

In general, the world expects an increase in black gold consumption to 92 million barrels per day.

Iraq also acts as a problem zone for OPEC, which reduced its oil exports by 7% last month compared to previous results. A total of 3.212 million barrels per day was produced. Thus, 99.585 million barrels of raw materials were exported, which cost on average about $21 per barrel, which is much higher than April prices. Meanwhile, serious financial problems have emerged in the country, the budget deficit is growing, and with it reflections begin on the further desire to participate in the contract to reduce production. Iraq so far remains committed to the agreement with OPEC and will continue to reduce its production, despite the difficulties.

Another positive news that influenced the mood of investors was the release of preliminary statistics on oil reserves in the United States of America, which is traditionally represented by the Petroleum Institute – API. The published data reflect a decrease in black gold reserves by 483,000 barrels last week, the current level of reserves was at around 531 million barrels. This fall, of course, is not the most grandiose in history, but, in comparison with preliminary forecasts of analysts, it is much better. Recall that earlier experts said that reserves should grow by no less than three million barrels.

At the same time, stocks of gasoline and distillates increased: gasoline increased by 1.7 million barrels, and distillates – by 5.9 million barrels. This, in turn, also did not coincide with preliminary forecasts of analysts who expected gasoline to grow by no more than one million barrels, and the increase in distillates should not be higher than 2.7.

Commercial oil reserves at the Cushing distribution center decreased by 2.2 million barrels, according to API.

However, all these are preliminary data, the official ones will arrive today in the afternoon, and if they justify the forecasts, the oil market will receive an additional incentive for growth.

This morning, the price of Brent crude futures for delivery in August at a trading platform in London is growing rapidly by 1.62%, or $0.64 in cash. Its level has stepped over an important mark of $40: it is still worth $40.21 per barrel. Recall that yesterday’s session also ended in a positive: growth was 3.26%, or 1.25 dollars, and trading closed at the level of 39.57 dollars per barrel.

The price of futures for light crude oil brand WTI with delivery in July at auction in New York increased by 2.61%, or 0.96 dollars. Now they are in the range of 37.77 dollars per barrel. Tuesday’s session also reflected a significant increase of 3.87%, or 1.37 dollars, and their final price at the close was 36.81 dollars per barrel.

According to analysts, both contracts showed very steady growth, which allowed them to be at their highest values in the last two months.

Source: Oil caught a wave: prices are skyrocketing

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