- August 14, 2019 at 12:47 pm #7408
Hi GUYS, Happy Wednesday!
I’d like to share daily forex analysis from Followme, hope this information helps your trading.
Today, Let’s focus on AUD and NZD.
AUDUSD is trading at 0.6761; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6765 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6635. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6825. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6905.
NZDUSD is trading at 0.6447; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6455 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6315. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6525. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6645.August 20, 2019 at 2:08 pm #7500
2019.08.20 #AUDUSD #news #forex
The Australian dollar fell in yesterday’s Trading, almost touching the resistance point of 0.6800 at 0.6795. After a tumultuous last week, the AUD is expected to see further volatility with the release of the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes tomorrow midday.
Released 11 times a year, the minutes are a detailed record of the #ReserveBank Board’s most recent meeting. It will provide in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
The #AUDUSD is at 0.6780 nearly. Traders are betting on the Euro to #fall through the psychological level of $1.10 this month as the #ECB prepares a stimulus package amidst the recent global economic downturn. Policy maker Olli Rehn said the package would be “impactful and significant” and would be better for the bank to overshoot than undershoot market expectations.
Furthermore, we can expect to see further short-term volatility as the US-China #TradeWar continues to develop. The temporary license granted to Huawei by the US Commerce department is due to expire today, with expectations that they will extend it another 90 days permitting the Chinese firm to continue to purchase supplies from US companies.
The #EconomicPolicySymposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this upcoming Saturday. Attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the world, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech is the highlight of the day as they look for signals of further #RateCuts.
AUD/USD: 0.6715 – 0.6820August 27, 2019 at 1:52 pm #7619August 28, 2019 at 12:05 pm #7634
#Economics #USD #analysis
#US #TreasuryYield curve continued to invert on Tuesday with the spread between the 10- and two-year yields falling to -5 basis points, the lowest level since 2007.
The inversion, where long-term borrowing costs fall below the short-term ones, is widely considered an advance warning of an #impending#recession. Curve inversions have preceded US recessions of the past 50 years.
Some observers thought the curve inversion is not a reliable indicator anymore. Because the #US #bonds are currently yielding more than their #G7 #counterparts. So, the US bonds, particularly at the long end of the curve, tend to attract #overseas demand.
Also, the recession fears appear overblown as the US consumer is still holding up strong and the labor market is holding tight.
The US #ConferenceBoard said on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index (#CCI) slipped to 135.1 this month from a slightly upwardly revised 135.8 in July. However, the survey’s present situation index rose to 177.2, the highest reading since November 2000.
Further, the Conference Board survey’s labor market differential jumped to 39.4 in August from 33.1 in July, indicating a potential drop in the jobless rate.
So, the recession fears appear overblown as the US consumer is still holding up strong and the labor market is holding tight. #followme #socialtrading
Follow our [email protected] to find more information.August 29, 2019 at 1:08 pm #7654
[08.29] #analysis #forex #JPY
The #USDJPY pair came under some renewed #selling #pressure on Thursday and eroded a part of the previous session’s positive move, back closer to weekly #tops.
The pair continued with its struggle to capitalize on this week’s goodish rebound from multi-year lows and gain any strong follow-through traction beyond 200-hour SMA resistance near the 106.20-25 region.
A combination of factors benefitted JPY
As investors turned bleak on the prospect of a trade-war breakthrough any time soon, concerns over the global economic growth continued benefitting the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status and capped the major.
Market worries were evident from the prevalent cautious mood around equity markets, which coupled with the inversion of the US #BondYield curve, kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and exerted some pressure.
The Japanese Yen was further supported by the Bank of Japan (#BoJ) board member Suzuki’s comments, saying that the economy not showing signs of #recession and that they do not need to #ease further now.
Meanwhile, the #downside seemed limited, at least for the time being, as investors now seemed to refrain from placing any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday’s important release of revised US Q2 #GDP growth figures.
So, it will be #prudent to wait for a strong follow-through momentum in either direction before positioning for the pair’s near-term trajectory amid the recent escalation in trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. #followme #socialtradingAugust 30, 2019 at 3:24 pm #7668
#analysisi #forex #GBPUSD
#GBP was expected to weaken yesterday, and break of the solid 1.2150 support was not expected. There was another support at 1.2180. GBP subsequently dipped to 1.2172 during late NY hours before settling on a soft note at 1.2182. The immediate #risk still appears to be tilted to the downside, and for today, a breach of 1.2150 is not ruled out. That said, lackluster momentum suggests the next support at 1.2125 is unlikely to be challenged (this level is followed by solid support at 1.2100). On the upside, only a move above 1.2250 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased (minor resistance is at 1.2225).
#Next 1-3 weeks, #GBP is likely to probe the #top of the expected 1.2150/1.2380 range first. After touching a one-month high of 1.2310 on Tuesday (27 Aug), GBP plummeted on the back #Brexit headlines and came close to the bottom of the expected range at 1.2150 (low of 1.2156). While the positive underlying tone has been dented, we continue to view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase.
So, after yesterday’s price action, GBP would likely trade at a lower range of 1.2100/1.2300 in the coming days. #FOLLOWME #SocialTradingSeptember 2, 2019 at 2:10 pm #7736
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Here are the calendar highlights for this week:
(GMT TIME ZONE)
01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
01:00 JPY Japan Vehicle Sales y/y
03:00 TRY Turkey GDP y/y
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI
04:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
04:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
07:00 ECB’s Nominated President Lagarde speech
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI m/m
13:45 USD Markit PMI data (Aug)
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
21:00 US Fed’s Rosengren (hawk, dissenter) speech
01:30 JPY BoJ’s Kataoka speech
01:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
08:30 GBP Services PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone retail sales m/m
11:00 EUR ECB’s Lane speech
14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
14:00 CAD Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision
15:15 CAD BoC Press Conference
18:00 USD Fed releases Beige Book
05:45 CHF Q2 GDP q/q
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change (Aug)
13:45 USD Markit Services PMI data (Aug)
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
14:30 GBP BOE’s Tenreyro speaks in Frankfurt
15:45 CAD BOC Schembri give economic progress report
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production m/m
07:30 GBP Halifax House Prices m/m
09:00 EUR Q2 Final GDP q/q
12:30 USD Non-Farm Payroll Report, Unemployment Rate and Wage Data
12:30 CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
14:00 CAD IVEY PMI
16:30 Fed’s Chair Powell speech
16:30 SNB’s Chairman Jordan speech
The US-China #TradeWar remains tense, as certain tariffs kick in and will start to weigh on the US economy. Continued deterioration with Chinese manufacturing data also has #global #recession concerns on high alert and have markets bracing for the next wave of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Markets remain firmly focused on the #ECB’s September 12th meeting and September 18th #FOMC decision, but we can’t overlook a plethora of# rate decisions that will likely signal continued additional #RateCuts are coming and stimulus is just around the corner. The #RBA is expected to remain on hold for just one month, while the #BOC and #Riksbank are expected to deliver dovish messages that will see them join the global #RateCutting club.
#GBP #Brexit #BorisJohnson will suspend parliament, commencing between 9th and 12th September (tbc) until the Queen’s speech on 14th October. The move leaves MPs that want to block no-deal with little time to do so and increases the chance of no-deal Brexit. The next week could, therefore, be action-packed and full of surprises. Massive swings in the pound look almost guaranteed, with there being particular vulnerability to the downside if government fails to block no-deal or bring down the government.
#AUD The #RBA meeting on Tuesday could be another one on pause mode, with market pricing only assigning a 10% chance of a 25 bps cut from the current record low of 1%. The last set of employment data was robust, with solid jobs growth and a stable unemployment rate at 5.2%. There is a slight risk of a surprise cut, but more likely we could get a more dovish tone to the statement. Q2 GDP data on Wednesday could spring a positive surprise, with latest estimates suggesting a slight improvement to +0.5% q/q from +0.4%. A dovish statement or a surprise cut would pile additional pressure on an already weak Aussie dollar. It’s fallen vs the US dollar for the past six weeks. Other G-7 Q2 data has been flat to negative, so positive growth could be a boon for AUD.September 3, 2019 at 12:04 pm #7754
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The #EURUSD pair bounced from the mentioned low ahead of the London fix, heading into the Asian opening trading in the 1.0970 region. The pair retains the #bearish stance, with an upward corrective movement only likely if the pair firms up beyond 1.1000.
Now, it is trading at 1.0934. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA continues accelerating south below the larger moving averages and well above the current level, while technical indicators have stalled their slumps, but remain within extreme oversold levels.
The #risk is skewed to the #downside, with the decline seen extending on a break below the mentioned daily low.
Support levels: 1.0955 1.0920 1.0890
Resistance levels: 1.1000 1.1040 1.1085September 5, 2019 at 1:13 pm #7786
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The #GBPUSD pair pullback to 1.2240 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Now it is trading at 1.2217.
#GBP recently surged as the UK lawmakers voted to avoid #NoDeal #Brexit and also turning the down the #PM #BorisJohnson’s proposed snap general election. The members of the parliaments (MPs) debated various bills concerning no-deal Brexit and early elections at the House of Commons. These bills will now reach the upper house i.e. the House of Lords for further discussions/amendments, scheduled for Thursday, and return back to the lower chamber prior to getting the Royal Assent. As per the Labour sources cited by The Press Association, the UK government’s legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit will be completed by Friday.
With the risk tone remains positive with nearly four basis points (bps) of gains to 1.51% mark of the US 10-year Treasury yield by the press time.
Trade headlines will be the key to determine near-term trade direction of the #GBPUSD pair while August month’s ADP Employment Change, #ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (#PMI) and Factory Orders for July from the #US will decorate the economic calendar.
Traders now watch over 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.2155 and 1.2100 round-figure during additional pullback whereas 1.2308/10 area including August month high and 50-day SMA and early-July low surrounding 1.2382 could please buyers if prices clear recent high of 1.2261.September 6, 2019 at 2:42 pm #7805
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#GBPUSD pair stays firm around 1.2320 after witnessing three consecutive positive daily closings ahead of Friday’s UK session open, due to the receding chances of no-deal Brexit.
The United Kingdom’s (UK) House of Lords is still debating on various Brexit issues to roll them out by Friday evening, to return them to House of Commons that could pass them for Royal Assent. While no significant change is expected in that front, the British Pound (GBP) traders are more inclined to hear from judicial reviews and pleas against the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s prorogation to the parliaments.
While the UK’s economic calendar is mostly silent, the #US will offer August month employment data for fresh impulse. Market consensus favors no change in the #UnemploymentRate of 3.7% whereas Average Hourly Earnings might step back from 3.2% to 3.1% on YoY while likely being unchanged to 0.3% on MoM. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) could weaken to 158K from 164K prior.
Additionally, the US #FederalReserve Chairman is scheduled to speak at an event hosted by the Swiss Institute of International Studies, in Zurich, and hence his comments will be closely observed ahead of the blackout period for the Fed policymakers.
Sustained break of the 50-day simple moving average (DMA) requires to be validated by a run-up crossing July 17 low of 1.2382 for further advances, failing to which can recall 1.2200 back to the chart.
September 9, 2019 at 4:42 pm #7898
#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
Here are the data highlights for this week:
14:00 German trade figures and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index
16:00 UK BoE’s Vlieghe speech
16:30 UK GDP, manufacturing production and construction output (all monthly figures)
09:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
16:30 UK average earnings index
16:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jul)
08:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Sep)
20:30 US core PPI
Chinese trade figures
14:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug)
19:45 Europe ECB rate decision and press conference
20:30 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
20:30 US CPI
20:30 US retail sales
22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep)
#ECB unlikely to re-launch #QE
In this week, the main significant event is Mario Draghi’s last policy meeting as the #ECB President. There have been some suggestions that the #Italian will go out with a bang and announce more quantitative #easing to stimulate the flagging #Eurozone #economy – not least Germany, where incoming data has been truly shocking.
However, with #InterestRates already at zero and having only recently ended their #QE programme, some would argue that the best course of action would be to take no action at all, even if — as Mr Draghi put it in July — the economic outlook is “getting worse and worse.” Indeed, there could be an element of hawkish surprise at this meeting. Several ECB officials have spoken against QE, including Jens Weidmann, Klaas Knot, and Madis Muller in recent days. With this much opposition, Mario Draghi will probably not want to create a mess for his successor to clean up.
US #Inflation before #Fed meeting
With the latest employment figures disappointing expectations following a very poor manufacturing #PMI earlier in the week, this has further cemented speculation over a rate cut by the Fed later this month. Ahead of the September 18 meeting, we will have two more key data releases this week which the Fed might take into account when deciding on interest rates: Consumer Price Index (#CPI) (Thursday) and #RetailSales (Friday).
Unless #CPI is shockingly weak, it is safe to assume the #Fed will only #Cut #Rates by 25 basis points rather than 50. The retail sales may change that view either. Still, it could trigger some movement in the forex and stock markets. After a strong 0.7% m/m increase in spending last month, traders will be watching for any signs of a #slowdown, especially after last month’s tariff escalations.September 11, 2019 at 3:54 pm #7964
09.11 #analysisi #forex #socialtrading
The #EURUSD has been fluctuating between two converging trend-lines over the past one week or so, forming a symmetrical triangle on hourly charts. Wednesday’s early uptick quickly ran out of the steam, rather met with some fresh supply near the triangle resistance.
The #intraday #pullback has now dragged the pair back below 100-hour SMA, the intraday bias might have shifted in favor of bearish traders and sets the stage for a move towards testing the triangle support, currently near the 1.1020 region, which is followed by 200-hour EMA.
Due to drifting into the bearish territory on the 1-hourly chart, failure to defend the mentioned support levels might indicate the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend.
The pair might then turn vulnerable to slide back towards challenging multi-year swing lows, around the 1.0925 area, before eventually sliding farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region – levels now seen since May 2017.
On the other hand, the 1.1050 region might continue to attract some fresh #supply, which if cleared decisively should negate any near-term bearish bias and prompt some aggressive short-covering move and assist the pair to surpass last week’s swing high resistance near the 1.1085 level.September 12, 2019 at 4:05 pm #8005
0912 #analysis #EURUSD #forex #socialtrading
#EURUSD pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday and tumbled back below the key 1.10 psychological mark, albeit managed to recover around 25-pips from daily lows. The shared currency took a sharp knock in reaction to the German growth downgrade by the #Kiel #Institute for the World Economy, now expected to contract by -0.3% in Q3 following -0.1% in the previous quarter and meeting the criteria of a ‘technical recession’.
#USD remained well supported by a strong follow-through pickup in the US Treasury bond yields amid growing optimism over the resumption of the #USChina trade talks. On the economic data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August bettered market expectations and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the greenback. The headline PPI came in to show a rise of 0.1% during the reported month while the core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices rose 0.3%.
#TradeTensions between the world’s two largest economies eased further on Wednesday after the US President #Trump said that he will delay a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods by two weeks as a gesture of goodwill after Beijing exempted a range of American goods from its own tariffs. The market reaction, however, turned out to be rather muted, as investors seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday’s key event risk – the highly anticipated #ECB monetary policy decision.
The #ECB is widely expected to #lower #InterestRates further into the negative territory and also announce a new #QEprogram, though opinions on the stimulus package are divided and thus, increases the relevance of Thursday’s rate decision. This will be followed by the post-meeting press conference, where comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi will further collaborate towards infusing volatility around the EUR crosses. From the US, the release of consumer inflation figures for the month of August might influence the USD price dynamics but seems more likely to be overshadowed by the post-ECB volatility.
From a technical perspective, the #EURUSD on Wednesday broke through a symmetrical triangle formation on hourly charts and confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown. However, the fact that the pair managed to defend the 1.10 handle on a closing basis warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bearish bets. The pair now seems to have stabilized around 200-hour SMA, just below the triangle support breakpoint near the 1.1025 region. Any subsequent up-move now seems to confront fresh supply near mid-1.1000s, resistance marked by 38.2% Fibo. level of the 1.1251-1.0926 downfall, above which a bout of short-covering now seems to assist the pair to surpass the recent swing higher – around the 1.1070-80 region – and test 61.8% Fibo. level resistance near the 1.1125-30 area en-route the next major hurdle near the 1.1175-80 region (100-day SMA).
On the flip side, sustained weakness below the 1.10 handle, leading to a subsequent slide through the overnight swing lows – around the 1.0985, might now turn the pair to fall back towards the multi-year swing lows – around the 1.0925 area before eventually dropping farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region.September 16, 2019 at 3:33 pm #8102
#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
Hey friends! Happy new week.
Here are the data highlights for this week:
10:00 Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales
09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes
17:00 German ZEW economic sentiment and
21:15 US industrial production
16:30 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
20:30 Canada BoC CPI
02:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 US Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement REPORT
02:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
02:30 US FOMC Press Conference SPEECH
06:45 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
09:30 AUD Employment Change s.a. (Aug)
09:30 AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug)
10:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
10:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement REPORT
14:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference SPEECH
19:00 UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility
19:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Hike
19:00 UK Bank of England Minutes REPORT
19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Cut
19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
20:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
#FederalReserve is expected to cut rate about 25-basis point. It would be a major shock if the Fed doesn’t deliver. But some, including Donald Trump, want more than just 25 basis points. In fact, the US President has called for “boneheads” Fed to cut rates to zero or lower in a tweet this week. Understandably, with US data not deteriorating as badly as, say, Germany, the Fed is reluctant to cut aggressively and rightly so. The risk therefore is that the Fed refuses to provide a dovish outlook for interest rates. In this potential scenario, a rate cut might only weigh on the dollar momentarily. With most other major central banks already being or turning dovish, the Fed will also need to be super dovish for the dollar to end its bullish trend. Otherwise, the greenback may find renewed bullish momentum, even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points.
The #Swiss National Bank will have to say about the #ECB’s decision to resume bond buying, given the recent appreciation of the franc against the shared currency. The #BoJ is unlikely to respond to the #ECB’s resumption of bond buying. It may keep the current policy of controlling the yield curve. For one, the global economy hasn’t deteriorated too significantly to exacerbate deflationary pressures in the export-oriented Japanese economy. For another, the there’s only limited number of policy options left at the BoJ’s disposal. Thus, cutting short-term interest rates further into the negative may be an option, but to be used on another occasion.September 17, 2019 at 12:33 pm #8124
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The #GBPUSD is trading at 1.2410 due to no positive Brexit developments and an on-going Parliament deadlock at the UK.
The #UK #PM Boris Johnson’s Luxembourg visit failed to provide any key updates. The EU President criticized the Tory leaders’ depth of details while British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab reiterated the PM”s pledge to leave on October 31 and also passing the bucket of criticism back to the EU.
The #USD stays on the front foot as the recent rise in #safe-haven demand, mainly due to the attacks of Saudi Arabia, joins hands with optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks, up for early October.
While the absence of data, except the US Industrial Production for August, is likely in support of carrying the previous move forward, any positive to the UK PM during the first day of hearings at the UK’s Supreme court could help the Cable recover some of its latest losses.
Unless providing a daily closing beyond 100-day simple moving average (DMA) level near 1.2510, the quote is less likely to rise towards mid-July highs surrounding 1.2580, which in turn highlights the importance of 1.2380 and 50-DMA level of 1.2280 during further declines.
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