- September 18, 2019 at 12:53 pm #8156
#EURUSD #ANALYSIS #Forex #followme #socialtrading
The EUR/USD pair fails to hold on to recovery gains as it trades near 1.1070 ahead of the European session on Wednesday.
The US #IndustrialProduction and #CapacityUtilization failed to please the #USD buyers as better than forecast prints of the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany and the Eurozone gained major attention. Also adding to the pair’s strength was the market’s risk recovery after Saudi Arabian diplomats showed readiness to overcome the recent damages due to drone attack within few weeks. Furthermore, news of the New York #Fed injecting funds through repo market and trade-positive headlines concerning the US, China and Japan also tamed the earlier #risk-off momentum.
#Traders have been #cautious since the start of Wednesday with eyes on the US #FederalReserve’s monetary policy meeting announcements up from 18:00 GMT. However, fresh trade/political headlines help extend the latest risk-on. As a result, Asian stocks report gains and the US 10-year Treasury yield remain around 1.80% by the press time.
Considering the high probability of the US Federal Reserve’s 0.25% Fed #rate, investors will be less surprised unless the US central bank offers less/more or no rate change. As a result, details of the quarterly economic forecast, press conference by the Fed Chairman #Powell and Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement will be the key to predict near-term market moves. The European Central Bank (#ECB) has recently shown its dovish bias and hence any hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) could be harmful to the pair’s latest recovery.
On the economic calendar, final reading of August month Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Eurozone and the US housing market numbers could offer intermediate moves ahead of the Fed decision.
Not only a falling trend-line since late-June, at 1.1090, but the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 1.1167 also could restrict pair’s near-term upside, which in-turn highlights 1.1100 and recent low surrounding 1.0925 as key supports.September 23, 2019 at 3:36 pm #8311
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Hey friends! Happy new week.
Here are the data highlights for this week:
15:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Sep)
15:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
16:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (Sep)
21:50 US Fed’s Williams speech
13:35 BoJ’s Governor Kuroda speech
16:00 German Ifo Business Climate and US Consumer Confidence (CB)
17:55 RBA’s Governor Lowe speech
07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
10:00 RBNZ Rate Statement REPORT
10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
20:30 US Final GDP
07:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Sep)
20:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug)
20:30 US Core PCE Price Index; Core Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Spending and Income
Among next week’s data highlights, traders should watch closely: (1) Eurozone flash services and manufacturing PMIs, (2) RBNZ rate decisions and (3) US macro data released throughout the week.
Eurozone PMIs in focus
The #ECB restarted #QE and cut #InterestRates last week because of the Eurozone economy. The latest PMIs provide a leading indication of economic health. Businesses and their purchasing managers tend to react quickly to changing market conditions. If the PMIs – especially in the manufacturing sector – continue to paint a bleak picture, then the single currency could come under renewed pressure in early next week. The #EURUSD bulls huffed and puffed this week, but macro concerns kept a lid on the exchange rate. With the Fed turning out to be less dovish than expected, the path of least resistance remains to the downside for this popular exchange rate.
#RBNZ likely to hold rates steady after the surprise 0.5% cut
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to hold interest rates unchanged at the historically-low rate of 1.0% after delivering a shock 50 basis point cut when a 25bp cut was expected in the previous meeting in August. In total, rates have been trimmed by the RBNZ by 75 basis points since May. Going forward, the rate setters at the central bank will likely sit on theirs hands and monitor the ongoing trade situation between the US and China. However, if the RBNZ makes any hints of forthcoming rate cuts then the NZD/USD could drop further lower after it hit a new 2019 low below the old low of 0.6270 on Friday to drop to 0.6255 at the time of this writing.
US-China Trade and #Brexit back to forefront
Deputy trade negotiators from the US and China resumed talks for the first time in almost two months this week. Their aim is to lay the groundwork for high-level talks in early October. Will they finally bridge their differences and find a way out of the trade war? As the high levels talks near, expect more tweets and tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, which could highs some risk-sensitive markets. However, for the time being, stock markets remain supported with US equity indices near record levels after a week of central bank bonanza, where the #message was loud and clear: global #InterestRates will remain at or near record #lows for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, hopes over an imminent Brexit breakthrough rose earlier this week and the GBP/USD shot above the 1.25 handle to trade 20 pips shy of 1.26 by early Friday session. However, it then sold off sharply after the Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney dashed those hopes by saying: “I think we need to be honest with people and say that we’re not close to that deal right now. But there is an intent I think by all sides to try and find a landing zone that everybody can live with here.”
Followme, more than trade.September 24, 2019 at 10:09 am #8327
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#AUDUSD has dropped into the red, having faced rejection at the 50-hour moving average line and could suffer a deeper drop if the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (#RBA) governor Lowe reinforces the market expectation of a 25 basis point #RateCut on Oct. 1.
The currency pair is currently trading at session lows near 0.6765, representing 0.10% losses on the day. The pair had picked up a bid in the early Asian trading hours on comments by the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, confirming the Chinese Vice Premier’s trade visit to the US in the next week
The upside, however, was capped by the 50-hour moving average near 0.6779. Therefore, a break above that average is needed invite stronger buying pressure and yield a notable bounce.
That, however, may not happen or could be short-lived if RBA’s Lowe talks dovish. The central bank chief is scheduled to speak at 09:55 GMT.
Expectations for the RBA to cut the official interest rate to 75% on Oct. 1 surged following last week’s worse than expected unemployment rate.
The ASX 30 day cash rates futures contracts are currently indicating a more than 70% chance of an RBA rate cut next week.
The AUD will likely rise well above the 50-hour MA if RBA’s Lowe pushes back on expectations of an October rate cut. The currency pair, however, could drop below 0.67 if Lowe talks dovish, further boosting the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on Oct. 1.September 30, 2019 at 3:19 pm #8474
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Hey friends, this is the last day of September and the new day of this week.
Here is the highlight of this week forex news:
09:45 Chinese manufacturing PMI
16:30 UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
20:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Sep)
12:30 RBA meeting
22:00 US Manufacturing PMI
20:15 US ADP Employment report
22:00 US Non-Manufacturing PMI
20:30 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep)
20:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
In this week, the economic calendar is full of market-moving data and the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to #CutRates one more time on Tuesday. For another, Q3 is officially ending on Monday, meaning there will be some portfolio rebalancing and window dressing operations from portfolio managers to provide extra volatility. All this is happening at a time when #Brexit talks are entering a crucial stage, while the #US-China trade talks are set to resume in early October.
With regards to Brexit, reports on Friday suggested that the EU believes negotiations have stalled and that the possibility of reaching an agreement in October is very limited. So, everything is up in the air and a lot could happen. So, volatility should remain elevated, which should be good news for traders.
By the time we get to Friday’s #NonfarmPayrolls report, a lot could have happened. But those employment figures will likely be the week’s main scheduled event. With jobs growth slowing over the past few months, another disappointing showing could increase bets on further rate cuts from the Fed and, in turn, derail the dollar’s rally. Or will there be a surprise pick-up in wage growth? If that’s the case, the USD could remain supported for a while yet.
Ahead of Friday’s US jobs report, we will have had the latest manufacturing PMIs from both China and the US. After a shocking German PMI this week, growth concerns could really come to the forefront should manufacturers at the world’s largest economies also paint a bleak picture. So, commodity dollars could be in for a wild ride.October 3, 2019 at 2:38 pm #8547
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#EURUSD appears to have met a strong resistance in the mid-1.0900s for the time being amidst a recovery attempt in the Greenback.
The pair is exchanging gains with losses around the 1.0940/50 region in the European morning, looking to extend the positive streak for yet another session after YTD lows near 1.0880 on Tuesday.
Broad-based fears of a recession in the US economy in the next couple of years continue to fuel the selling pressure around the Dollar and the downtrend in US yields, all collaborating further with the corrective upside in spot.
The pair keeps the weekly recovery well and sound so far today, retaking levels well above the 1.09 barrier on the back of increasing selling pressure hitting the Greenback. The up move in the pair, however, is seen as corrective only, as the slowdown in the region stays far from abated and carries the potential to deteriorate further, as per the latest PMIs in core Euroland and despite the lacklustre improvement in a couple of German sentiment gauges. Speaking of Germany, the likeliness that the country could slip back into recession in the third quarter just adds to the already gloomy panorama for the bloc and weighs further on the single currency. The unremitting slowdown in the region does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB. On another front, potential US tariffs on imports of EU cars remain well on the table, while the Brexit limbo and UK politics adds to the ongoing concerns.
EUR/USD technical analysis
At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.09% at 1.0948 and a breach of 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1) would target 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017) en route to 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017). On the upside, the next hurdle aligns at 1.1000 (21-day SMA) followed by 1.1109 (monthly high Sep.13) and finally 1.1163 (high Aug.26).October 11, 2019 at 4:13 pm #8765
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The #USDJPY pair finally broke out of its daily consolidative trading range and jumped to near two-week tops, around the 108.25 region in the last hour.
A sustained move above 100-day EMA was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and remained supportive of some follow-through buying interest on Friday.
The pair is now trying to build on the momentum further beyond a four-month-old descending trend-line resistance amid growing US-China trade optimism.
This is closely followed by 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 112.40-104.45 downfall, which if cleared will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.
Beyond the said hurdle around mid-108.00s, the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 109.00 handle en-route 61.8% Fibo. resistance near the 109.30-35 region.
On the flip side, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 107.85 region (100-day EMA), which if broken might negate the constructive outlook.October 16, 2019 at 4:06 pm #8896
#GBPUSD #analysis #forex #forexnews #socialtrading
The #GBPUSD pair remained under some selling pressure amid a flurry of #Brexit headlines, albeit managed to recover around 60-65 pips from daily lows touched in the last hour.
The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session’s strong upsurge to the highest level since May 21 and met with some aggressive supply on Wednesday amid fading optimism over a possible #Brexit agreement before the fast-approaching October 31 deadline.
Against the backdrop of the #DUP concerns on the UK PM Boris Johnson’s Brexit concessions, a UK official said that the government was downbeat on chances of a Brexit deal, exerted some heavy #pressure on the #Pound.
The #intraday selling pressure aggravated further, dragging the pair closer to mid-1.2600s, in reaction to reports that suggested technical Brexit negotiations have reached an impasse. The report further added that the EU sees Brexit deal as impossible unless the UK moves.
With the latest #Brexit developments turning out to be an exclusive driver of the intraday volatility, the pair seemed rather unaffected by a subdued US Dollar price action, which remained on the defensive amid the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields.
If the GBP/USD pair continues to show some resilience below the 1.2700 round-figure mark or the current pullback marks the end of the recent strong #bullish momentum that started last week and the resumption of the recent bearish trend. #forex #followme #socialtradingOctober 17, 2019 at 2:04 pm #8914
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The #USDJPY pair extended its #sideways consolidative price action through the Asian session on Thursday and remained confined in a narrow trading band above mid-108.00s.
The mentioned region marks a resistance breakpoint and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level of the 112.40-104.45 downfall and should act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders.
Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and have also eased from slightly overbought conditions on the 4-hourly chart, favouring short-term bullish traders.
A sustained move beyond the 109.00 handle will further reinforce the constructive set-up and set the stage for an accelerated move up towards the 109.30 next resistance zone.
The said hurdle represents early August swing highs and 61.8% Fibo. level, which if cleared will negate any bearish bias and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.
The pair could then surpass an intermediate resistance near the 109.60-65 region and aim towards reclaiming the key 110.00 psychological mark en-route mid-110.00s supply zone.
On the flip side, any pullback below the mentioned resistance turned support might still be seen as a buying opportunity and help limit the downside near the 109.00-108.90 #SupportArea.October 18, 2019 at 3:44 pm #8946
#EURUSD #forex #analysis #socialtrading #followme
EUR/USD now is trading at 1.1130. The upside momentum in the single currency has subsided a tad at the end of the week.
The EUR/USD pair is now struggling for a clear direction following three consecutive daily advances. Indeed, the positive streak includes the ahead 2-month tops in the 1.1140 regions recorded on Thursday, just ahead of the 100-day SMA.
Spot gathered extra pace along with the rest of the riskier assets after the #UK and the #EU clinched a Brexit deal yesterday, although some cautiousness has emerged in past hours in response to firm opposition from the #DUP and ahead of the UK Parliament vote on Saturday.
In the euro docket, Current Account figures for the month of August are only due later, while speeches by Dallas Fed R.Kaplan (2020 voter, dovish), Kansas City Fed E.George (voter, hawkish) and #FOMC’s R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish) are next on the US calendar.
The upside momentum in the pair has extended further north of the critical 1.1100 handle against the backdrop of a weaker buck and optimism from the recently clinched Brexit deal. However, it is worth recalling that the positive 3-week streak in spot has been exclusively sponsored by the renewed offered bias in the Dollar and that the outlook in Euroland continues to deteriorate and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the longer run. In addition, the possibility that the German economy could slip into recession in Q3 remains a palpable risk for the outlook and is expected to weigh further on EUR.
At the moment, the pair is losing 0.01% at 1.1124 and faces the next barrier at 1.1139 (monthly high Oct.17) seconded by 1.1163 (high Aug.26) and finally 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally). On the flip side, a break below 1.1050 (21-day SMA) would target 1.0994 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1).October 21, 2019 at 11:45 am #9032
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Hi Traders, happy new week!
“He who seizes the right moment is the right man.”
Here is this week forex calendar highlights:
01:30 China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
reaction to Brexit vote and Canadian elections
08:00 EuropeECB Bank Lending Survey
12:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
14:30 Crude oil inventories
07:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Oct)
07:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
08:00 Eurozone PMIs
11:45 ECB Deposit Rate Decision
11:45 ECB Interest Rate Decision
12:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Sep)
12:30 ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
06:00 German GfK Consumer Climate
08:00 German Ifo Business Climate
The GBP/USD was continuing to find buyers late in the day on Friday, with investors reacting to some UK media reports that said Boris Johnson had secured enough backing to support his deal. However, what matters is the actual votes in the ‘Super Saturday’ sitting.
#Labour is strongly advising its #MPs to oppose the deal, and most, perhaps all, are likely to do so. 10 ‘no’ votes appear all but inevitable from MPs of Ireland’s DUP party that has also vowed to oppose the deal. So, the fate of Boris Johnson’s plan hangs partly on Tory pro-Brexit MPs who have repeatedly voted down previous deals
The #PM is busily making pleading calls to MPs ‘across the Commons’ as the weekend approaches, says Downing Street. There’s really no telling how persuasive he will be, till the result of the vote is known. It’s a recipe for investors to execute only the most necessary moves in advance, before a possible ‘manic Monday’ in Saturday’s wake
Should the deal get the majority required in Parliament for the #UK to leave the #EU in an orderly fashion, we could expect sterling to rally and the #FTSE to jump higher in a knee-jerk reaction, similar to what we saw on Thursday’s announcement of the Brexit deal. However, the stronger pound could eventually weigh on the #FTSE given the index’s high percentage of multinationals earning abroad which will be hit by the less favorable exchange rate.
Should Boris Johnson’s selling skills fail him, and the deal does not pass through #Parliament we can expect the pound and the FTSE to sell off sharply, the reverse of Thursday’s reaction, with the FTSE then potentially rebounding as it responds to sterling’s decline.
It will be #MarioDraghi’s last policy meeting as the head of the #ECB, and having just re-introduced #QE at the last meeting he will likely go out with a whimper. The euro has appreciated since the ECB’s last meeting, partly because of Brexit optimism and also due to a weakening dollar. Also, raised hopes over a US-China trade resolution, which could boost Chinese demand for Eurozone exports, has also supported the single currency. Furthermore, several ECB policymakers have criticized Draghi’s renewed bond-buying program and called for a change of strategy when Christine Lagarde takes over next month. The probability of further policy loosening has therefore fallen.October 23, 2019 at 12:49 pm #9117
#forex #forexnews #Brexit
#GBPUSD is trading at 1.2867, having breached key support on Tuesday, courtesy of Brexit delay.
The pound fell below the 50-hour moving average, confirming a bearish reversal on short duration charts. The key MA had consistently reversed pullbacks throughout the rally from 1.22 to 1.30 and may work as stiff resistance henceforth.
The GBP was offered as #PrimeMinister #Johnson’s #BrexitBill won parliamentary support, but the government’s timetable of just 3 days debate on the bill was rejected.
With the parliamentary defeat, the probability of Britain leaving the European Union (#EU) before the Oct. 31 deadline has dropped sharply.
Further, a source in Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office said on Tuesday that a new election would be the only way to move on from Britain’s Brexit crisis if the European Union agrees to a delay until January.
On a daily chart, the uptrend in GBP/USD appears to have stalled. Signs of indecision loom as a #Bearish Harami candlestick pattern risks paving the way for a reversal. Prices are eyeing near-term support which is a range between 1.2773 and 1.2798. A close under this barrier could open the door to testing former highs from September. Otherwise, clearing resistance at 1.3001 prolongs the uptrend.
Expectation for GBP to “retest the 1.3010/15 level” was incorrect as GBP rose briefly to 1.3000 before plummeting to 1.2862 during NY hours. Upward pressure has dissipated and the short-term risk is for a deeper pullback. That said, any weakness is viewed as a lower trading range of 1.2810/1.2920 and a sustained decline below 1.2810 appears unlikely for now.
Next 1-3 weeks:
#GBP tried to break clearly above 1.3000 for the second straight day yesterday (22 Oct) but slumped after touching 1.3000. For now, there is no change to our view from Monday (21 Oct, spot at 1.2880) wherein “GBP has to ‘punch’ above 1.3000 and register a NY closing above this level in order to indicate that the current rally has enough ‘ammunitions’ to extend to 1.3050, possibly as high as 1.3150”. While there is no change to our view, severely overbought conditions suggest GBP could ill afford to dither below 1.3000 or the risk of a short-term top would increase rapidly. From here, unless GBP cracks and stays above 1.3000 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 1.2770 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the positive phase that started more than a week ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. Looking ahead, a breach of 1.2770 would suggest that GBP is ready to ‘take a breather’ after the steep rally over the past couple of weeks.October 28, 2019 at 3:55 pm #9275
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23:00 ECB’s President Draghi speech
07:30 Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Oct)
14:45 RBA’s Governor Lowe speech
08:30 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
08:30 Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)
19:00 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Oct)
20:30 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)
22:00 CANADA Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
02:00 US Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement
03:30 FOMC Press Conference
24h Brexit Deadline
18:00 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.
09:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
The fate of the dollar could be decided by the upcoming #Fed policy decision. While the market is fully pricing in a third consecutive #RateCut, the odds for another cut in December have dropped to 40%. The Fed is likely to cut rates but possibly signal they will wait-and-see the impact of recent batch of cuts. #Powell has highlighted Greenspan’s mid-cycle adjustment in the 1990s and we could see that remain the game plan.
The #TradeWar should see incremental updates, but we may not see a major move until we get to the Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit next month. The #USD has weakened significantly in the early part of October and we could see this recent rebound be short-lived if the deep pessimism for the global outlook eases, and the dollar to remain very vulnerable.
#Oil prices have been rising towards the back end of the week aided by a surprise inventory drawdown on Wednesday. Oil has been gradually rising since testing its summer lows. Remains vulnerable to global growth worries and further attacks in the middle east.
#Gold has been creeping off its lows but is still struggling to gather any upward momentum. A softer dollar has aided the resilience in the yellow metal but it continues to linger around $1,500. Gold volatility has been relatively muted but the risk environment remains fragile.
The #UK remains in limbo as the country waits to hear whether its extension will be accepted and how long it will be. #BorisJohnson has proposed to Labour that in exchange for an election on 12 December, he will extend the timetable for the #BrexitBill until 6 November. Labour expected to respond on Monday once extension from EU becomes clear. It’s unclear when the #EU will respond as there’s apparently a dispute around whether to offer the full three months or just a couple of weeks, reportedly favoured by France. It’s extremely unlikely it will be rejected altogether but the currency remains volatile.
Weak economic data out of #China has a serious knock-on effect for most of Asia, who rely heavily on exports to China. It’s also likely to filter down to slower global growth.
Quarterly #CPI data on Wednesday could be a market mover, but it’s not the #RBA’s major focus at the moment. Prices have been trending lower since Q2 last year. Weak CPI data could give the RBA more wiggle space for rate cuts, which would be #AUD negative.
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